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GFT instruments / Capacity and commissioning

Capacity arrives in phases.
Performance has to learn.

Commission in phases. Let each cohort learn. Follow monthly output, staffing and fixed-cost coverage, then price the consequence of a commissioning delay. An illustrative eighteen-month planning instrument.

Plan the ramp

Illustrative base case2,304,000 units in 18 months · first coverage M6

Illustrative base caseCohort output, units per month (peak 224,000)

Operate the instrumentProcedural visualisation of an illustrative plan. Schematic, not a facility.

An instrument for the decision

How quickly can a factory ramp, and what does each month of delay cost?

Change a phase, a learning curve or a delay. The cloth and the output woven above it recalculate at once.

Scenario

Illustrative planning case. Every starting value is an assumption or estimate. No operating factory, order book or delivery commitment is represented.

Phasesfour start months and lines added
Release capacity in four waves.

Start months are before the shared delay. New lines enter at their own starting efficiency.

01Prove

02Repeat

03Extend

04Consolidate

Learningrate, utilisation, efficiency, curve
Give each phase time to learn.
Staffing and costsheadcount, payroll, overhead, contribution
Set staffing and cost assumptions.
Output, 18 months2,304,000saleable units
First fixed-cost coverageM613 months cover fixed cost
Against saved baseline A+712,800units, current minus A

Output, units per month (peak 224,000)Illustrative

  • P1Mature70%
  • P2Learning62%
  • P3Learning30%
  • P4Not installed
Month 9 · 133,120 saleable units · 16 lines / 738 people · 1.29× coverage

This month covers site overhead and loaded payroll. Check that orders and material supply can support this output.

Move across the cloth or the output to read a month. Click to select it.

Hold the observation window fixed

A delayed line loses contribution and defers hiring.

Compare your schedule with exactly the same plan without delay. The bridge measures the change inside this horizon.

The same cloth, 3 months lateLost beyond M18: 656,640 units

Net delay loss, illustrative

496.37mXAF

3 months of shared delay, against the same plan without delay. Worked example: your delay is 0, so this shows three months.

Contribution forgone787.97m XAF
Payroll avoided291.6m XAF
Net delay loss496.37m XAF

Net delay loss for each month of delay, 0 to 12

Delay 0 months: 0m XAF. Press a bar to set the delay.

One additional month of delay171.6m XAFmarginal operating-balance loss
Horizon operating balance774m XAFcontribution less fixed operating costs
Peak cumulative operating deficit144.16m XAFmonth-end operating basis only

Save a baseline, then challenge it

Challenge the saved baseline with a new case.

Baseline A opens as the slower learning case: twelve months to mature, 65% utilisation. Change any input to create B; the dashed cloth shows the gap. Save current as A to replace the baseline. Sharing carries B and the inspected month, never the baseline.

Output, B minus A+712,800 units
Balance, B minus A+855.36m XAF
Peak deficit, B minus A−173.11m XAF
First coverage5 months earlier
Read the A and B table
Saved A versus current B. B minus A uses unrounded model values.
Horizon measureSaved ACurrent BB minus A
Output / units1,591,2002,304,000+712,800
Operating balance-81.36m XAF774m XAF855.36m XAF
Peak operating deficit317.27m XAF144.16m XAF-173.11m XAF
First monthly coverageM11M6See the ledger
Shared delay / months000

The cloth, turned a quarter

Reconcile every month before committing capacity.

Months shown
Columns shown
Illustrative monthly operating ledger, derived from current assumptions. Currency columns are millions of CFA franc (XAF).
MonthcalendarWoven monthactive cohortsLinesactiveOutputunitsStaffpeopleContributionm XAFFixed costm XAFCoverageratioBalancem XAFCumulativem XAF
P1419,20025223.0465.240.35×-42.2-42.2
424,32025229.1865.240.45×-36.06-78.26
429,44025235.3365.240.54×-29.91-108.17
434,56025241.4765.240.64×-23.77-131.94
P21068,48049582.1894.40.87×-12.22-144.16
1081,28049597.5494.41.03×3.14-141.02
1088,960495106.7594.41.13×12.35-128.67
1096,640495115.9794.41.23×21.57-107.1
P316133,120738159.74123.561.29×36.18-70.92
16148,480738178.18123.561.44×54.62-16.3
16156,160738187.39123.561.52×63.8347.53
16163,840738196.61123.561.59×73.05120.58
P420190,720900228.861431.6×85.86206.44
20203,520900244.221431.71×101.22307.66
20208,640900250.371431.75×107.37415.03
20213,760900256.511431.79×113.51528.54
20218,880900262.661431.84×119.66648.2
20224,000900268.81431.88×125.8774

Output is rounded to whole units for readability; the calculation keeps fractional expected units and staffing rounds up to whole people. Currency columns are millions of CFA franc (XAF), with no foreign-exchange assumption.

Method / the calculation stays visible

Count capacity once, and let each phase learn separately.

Lines installed, M916
Cohort efficiency70 / 62 / 30%
Staff in post738
Fixed-cost coverage1.29×

=×××

  1. Step 01 / 04

    Time starts at commissioning.

    Each phase adds identical lines at the start of its nominated month, plus the shared delay, and they run for the whole month.

    Show the arithmetic

    The model uses an eighteen-month calendar. No partial month is inferred. Scheduled utilisation reduces the share of the nominal calendar that is loaded; efficiency then reduces output within loaded time. Avoid subtracting the same loss through both.

  2. Step 02 / 04

    Learning follows cohort age.

    A new phase starts at starting efficiency and rises to mature efficiency over the learning period, so each band darkens from its own start.

    Show the arithmetic

    The linear setting rises evenly, counting the first month. Early gains uses a square-root progression over the same endpoints. These are sensitivity shapes, not fitted learning laws. The maturity count shows phases that completed the period; it does not certify a training standard.

  3. Step 03 / 04

    Staffing follows installed capacity.

    A core team is kept from the first month, even with no line available. The rest of the headcount scales with the share of planned lines installed.

    Show the arithmetic

    The full-plan estimate is therefore a ceiling. It does not model vacancies, overtime, training lead time or grades. A zero-line plan keeps only core staff and overhead, so an idle organisation shows its cost.

  4. Step 04 / 04

    Coverage is an operating test.

    Contribution is compared with fixed cost in every month. The selvedge marks each month that covers it; the uncovered months carry the deficit.

    Show the arithmetic

    Contribution per unit must already deduct materials and every other variable cost, and exclude payroll and the fixed overhead entered here. Coverage is undefined when fixed cost is zero. The first coverage month can be followed by another loss-making month when a new phase opens, so read the whole ledger. Peak deficit is the deepest month-end balance below zero from a zero opening balance.

    For each commissioning cohort: lines × nominal units per line-month × utilisation × age-dependent efficiency. Monthly contribution less overhead and loaded payroll gives operating balance. Delay cost equals contribution forgone less payroll avoided over the same eighteen-month window. GFT illustrative cohort arithmetic. Phase structure and staffing estimate follow the assigned planning brief; all assumptions are shown below. A planning aid. Not investment, legal or tax advice. Verify inputs and boundaries before an operational decision.

One plan, three readings

The same four waves look different when learning slows or the date slips.

01 / 03 · As planned

2,304,000

units over 18 monthsfirst coverage M6

02 / 03 · Learning slower

1,958,400

−345,600 vs planfirst coverage M9

03 / 03 · Three months late

1,647,360

−656,640 vs planfirst coverage M9

Illustrative. The three readings are derived from the planner's current inputs: slower learning doubles the learning period, late commissioning shifts every phase by three months.

  1. 01 / 03

    As planned.

    Four waves of lines arrive on schedule and every cohort climbs from its own starting efficiency. Output is the sum of cohorts, not one curve.

  2. 02 / 03

    Learning slower.

    Double the learning period and the same lines make less in every month after commissioning. The staircase of installed lines does not move: the gap is all efficiency.

  3. 03 / 03

    Three months late.

    Every phase shifts right. Production hiring moves with the lines; core staff and overhead do not. The window still ends at month 18, so output is lost at the end of it.

Read the gap before choosing the next phase

Two readers, one model, two different questions.

Choose a reader

Is the installed line actually loaded?

  1. Compare the month’s output with confirmed orders and material availability.
  2. Test lower utilisation before assuming another wave improves the balance.
  3. Schedule supervisors, quality checks and maintenance from the output and headcount ledger.

Does each cohort learn as assumed, and when is fixed cost covered?

  1. Update the starting efficiency from observed first-shift performance, not this example.
  2. Read the first coverage month, and whether a new phase reopens the gap.
  3. Treat the operating deficit as a floor, not the financing requirement.

The pulled column: M9, from nominal rate to output

Nominal rate of active lines16 lines × 20,000

320,000

After scheduled utilisation× 80%

256,000

Output after learning× cohort efficiency

133,120

This is GFT's own illustrative arithmetic, not an empirical forecast. No external productivity or financial benchmark is asserted; the source register records the local assignment basis and the absence of externally sourced numerical defaults.

The boundary of the arithmetic

Where does the model stop?

  1. Readiness is not elapsed time. Equipment acceptance, safe utilities, trained supervisors and verified product quality sit outside the model.
  2. Four constants hold. Equal line capacity, constant contribution, constant loaded payroll rates and unrestricted material supply.
  3. A deficit is not a funding need. The operating deficit is not the financing requirement, and output delayed beyond the horizon changes how a delay loss reads.

Outside the model

  • Capital payments and inventory
  • Receivables, financing and tax

Inside the model

  • Contribution per saleable unit
  • Loaded payroll by active lines
  • Site overhead, idle months included
  • An eighteen-month window
  • Inflation and exchange movements
  • Within-month cash timing

Measure the shift before scaling the site.

The research catalogue lists topics, not released papers. Each tag asks a question this planner cannot answer for you.

Register of defaults

Every default has an explicit status.

These inputs are a transparent illustrative case. The brief supplies no sourced factory productivity or cost benchmark. Replace the example with validated engineering quantities, hiring plans and commercial assumptions before using it in a decision.

Filter by status

0 of 9 changed from default · showing 9

Lit: the row bands, governed by Phase schedule.

  1. Phase scheduleAssumption

    M1 / M5 / M9 / M13; 4 / 6 / 6 / 4 lines

    Illustrative: staged release of twenty equal-capacity lines across four commissioning waves.

  2. Nominal ratePlaceholder

    20,000 units per line-month

    Illustrative: a round planning denominator at full schedule and full efficiency. Replace with engineering cycle-time capacity.

  3. Scheduled utilisationPlaceholder

    80%

    Illustrative: four fifths of nominal scheduled line time. A time-loading factor, independent of learning efficiency.

  4. Efficiency and curveAssumption

    30% to 70%; 6 months; linear

    Illustrative learning bounds from the lane brief, with a chosen six-month learning period. Each phase learns separately.

  5. HeadcountEstimate

    About 900 people

    Estimate from the lane brief, not a GFT employment claim. Core staff are 10% of this target, rounded up; the rest follows active-line share.

  6. Loaded payrollPlaceholder

    120,000 XAF per person-month

    Illustrative blended fully loaded cost. No statutory wage or legal adequacy claim.

  7. Non-payroll overheadPlaceholder

    35,000,000 XAF per month

    Illustrative committed site overhead, retained throughout the horizon, including idle months. Payroll is added separately.

  8. Unit contributionPlaceholder

    1,200 XAF per saleable unit

    Illustrative proceeds after material and other variable costs, before payroll and overhead. Not a quoted price or a margin benchmark.

  9. Delay and horizonAssumption

    Zero delay initially; 18 calendar months

    Illustrative shared commissioning shift. Delays defer production hiring but retain core staff and overhead. The window never moves.

Plan at M510 lines68,480 units

Held ring: 6 lines on bare warp

Use the result in its boundary

A calendar cannot certify readiness.

A commissioning date in this model is an assumption. Release a phase only after its actual safety, training, quality and order-readiness checks. Reconcile the first operating months against the cohort curve before committing another expansion.

M5

Phase 1 runs at 62% efficiency in M5, against 70% mature. The plan itself puts phase 2 at M5.

Evidence you hold for that date

Hold. The calendar says M5. 4 of 4 evidence items are not logged, so the date alone releases nothing.

The plan stays at 4 running lines until all four items are logged.

Keep the operating boundary with the decision. Fixed-cost coverage here excludes capital expenditure, working capital, debt service, depreciation and tax. Positive monthly coverage does not establish project viability or the total funding requirement. This is a scenario, not a forecast or an investment recommendation. Read the measurement approach ↗

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